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NAIROBI, Kenya: With the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority projecting above-average rainfall nationwide for the October–November-December (OND) season, Kenya is preparing for a wetter-than-usual period that presents both key opportunities and severe hazards.
Widespread above-normal rainfall is anticipated across much of the nation, heightening landslides and flooding threats that will test national and county response capacities.
The forecast, presented during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum, points to above-average rainfall in dozens of counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kisumu, Nakuru, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Machakos, Makueni, Garissa, Wajir and parts of Samburu, Marsabit and West Pokot.
Government officials who convened for a three-day scenario-building workshop to strategize on mitigating El Niño flood risks emphasized that weather predictions alone cannot safeguard communities unless followed by swift, decisive action.
Speaking at the close of the forum, Principal Secretary in the State Department for Environment and Climate Change, Eng. Festus Ng’eno, said Kenya must shift from simply producing climate information to using it to prevent losses.
“The focus does not save a life. It cannot protect lives lost or prevent loss. Its value is realized when it reaches the people and institutions that need it in time and when it informs action.”
He made the government’s position clear “We must move from climate information to early action.”
A Season of Opportunity and Danger
The experts have said the positive impacts of the OND season is particularly important for large parts of Kenya, especially the ASAL areas in the eastern and northern regions, where it contributes significantly to annual rainfall.
The forecast indicates that enhanced rainfall could improve water availability, agricultural production, pasture and groundwater recharge. But the same rains the experts say could also increase the risk of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, infrastructure damage and disruption of livelihoods.
Eng. Ng’eno said government agencies must therefore prepare for both sides of the forecast.
“Our responsibility is to prepare for both,” he said, warning that the cost of preparing for disasters is lower than responding after they occur.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, the upcoming October–November-December (OND) rains will be relatively well distributed throughout most regions of the country, though distribution may remain poor to fair in Turkana and Samburu. The forecast also highlights that the period will likely bring extended wet spells alongside sporadic heavy storms.
Addressing these projections, John Mutua from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) questioned how the OND 2026 climate outlook and impact-focused early warnings can be converted into actionable strategies to help livestock-dependent and pastoral communities prepare effectively before severe climate impacts occur.
”From the livestock and pastoral systems perspective, how can OND 2026
climate forecasts and impact-based early warnings be translated into practical decisions that help livestock- keeping communities prepared ahead of potential climate impacts?” asked John.
El Niño Strengthens As Kenya Watches The Skies
According to the latest assessment contained in the outlook, the Niño 3.4 index reached +1.51°C during May–July 2026, rose to +2.03°C in July, and reached +2.7°C in the week centred on 12th August with levels indicating that El Niño is strengthening towards a very strong event.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, meanwhile, remained neutral as of 23 August, although meteorologists expect it could move above the positive threshold from September.
“The combination of these climate drivers is being closely monitored because rainfall intensity can change during the season” noted Dr. Charles Mugah the Acting Director General, Kenya Meteorological Service Authority
The meteorological authority is urging Kenyans not to treat the seasonal forecast as a one-off prediction, but to continue following shorter-term forecasts and advisories.
Adding “It is therefore imperative to stay up to date with subsequent forecasts and updates,”says Dr. Mugah.
Addressing the OND 2026 forecast, key stakeholders raised critical questions regarding its practical application across various sectors.
Geoffrey Wanjala, representing the Cereal Growers Association, inquired about the precise data, support systems, and proactive steps needed for cereal farmers to leverage the forecast. He emphasized the importance of guiding timely choices concerning planting schedules, crop management strategies, agricultural inputs, and climate risk mitigation.
“From the perspective of cereal producers, what specific information, support mechanisms and early actions would enable farmers to use the OND 2026 forecast to make timely decisions on planting, crop management, inputs and protection against potential climate risks?” noted Geoffrey.
From a public finance perspective, David Waga of the National Treasury asked how the seasonal outlook directly impacts fiscal planning, resource distribution, and government budgeting.
“How does this seasonal forecast influence government budgeting and resource allocation?” asked David.
From Weather Warnings to Action
For the government, the challenge is now to ensure that information reaches the people who need it in a form they can understand and act upon.
Eng. Ng’eno called for stronger coordination between the meteorological authority and institutions responsible for agriculture, water, health, infrastructure, energy and disaster management.
“No single institution can manage climate risks alone,” he said.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority provides the scientific information, but other institutions must turn that information into action.
“The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority can provide the scientific information, but the information must be connected to the institutions responsible for the planning, disaster risk management, agriculture, water, health, infrastructure, energy and other sectors.”
County governments, communities, humanitarian organizations, development partners, private-sector actors, civil society and the media also have a role to play.
Farmers Need Forecasts They Can Use
For farmers, the seasonal forecast is only as valuable as the timely decisions it enables before the first drops fall.
During sectoral sessions, experts emphasized that agricultural communities such as those in Nyandarua and Kilifi would require localized, actionable insights to guide critical choices around crop selection, land preparation, and planting schedules.
For pastoralists in Turkana and Samburu, clear advisories are essential to manage grazing lands, secure livestock feed, and protect water resources.
Meanwhile, coastal fishing communities need reliable marine forecasts to safeguard lives, boats, and daily catches.
Urban centers like Nairobi face similar urgency, where local authorities must act early to mitigate flood risks and prevent infrastructure damage.
PS Ng’eno also called for a rethink of urban planning, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding. He urged county governments and developers to incorporate climate resilience into the design of urban centres, including measures that allow cities to absorb and manage excess water.
“Let’s design our urban centres which are sponge cities kind of a thing to be able to trap these waters,” he said.
Low Drought Risk But Turkana Remains Vulnerable
Addressing community engagement, Joe Mbalu of the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) raised a critical point: “Building on that, Joe, once we understand the forecast and potential impacts, how can we ensure that the voices, needs, and vulnerabilities of communities, particularly those most at risk are incorporated into preparedness and anticipatory action planning?”
Although concerns remain regarding excessive rainfall, current seasonal outlooks show no signs of widespread drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index indicates a low likelihood of mild, moderate, or severe drought conditions across the majority of the nation. However, Turkana still presents a 15%–20% probability of experiencing mild drought.
Temperatures, however, are expected to remain warmer than average during the season, particularly in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and parts of Tana River, Taita/Taveta and Garissa.
The Media Has A Critical Role
PS Ng’eno also challenged scientists and government agencies to communicate climate information in language that ordinary citizens can understand.
He acknowledged that meteorological information can often be highly technical and urged experts to work with the media to simplify the information without losing its scientific accuracy.
“We need to be able to provide timely, accurate information to the people,” he said.
He called for locally relevant communication approaches so that communities are not left behind.
“Climate information must not only be accurate, it must also be timely, accessible, understandable, and trusted.”
The Bigger Question: Will Kenya Act Early?
As the country heads into the October–November-December season, government agencies now face a critical test: whether Kenya can turn increasingly sophisticated climate science into anticipatory action.
The meteorological authority has provided the forecast. What happens next will depend on how quickly national and county governments, farmers, pastoralists, humanitarian organizations and communities act on it.
Eng. Ng’eno urged stakeholders to make three commitments: turn information into action, strengthen collaboration and build long-term resilience.
“Let us therefore leave this forum with a shared determination to act early, act together and act at the best available science and knowledge.”
For Kenya, the message from the climate outlook is therefore not simply that the rains are coming. It is that the warning has already come and there is now a narrow window to act before the water does.
