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By Liz Anyango
Nairobi, Kenya: Africa has the land. The labour. The resources. But are farmers getting their fair share?
Imagine this: A farmer owns the land. He plants, works, and harvests loads of food. The harvest leaves the farm and successfully heads to the market. But somewhere in between, there is a miss.
The money the farmer takes home does not match the amount of work that went into producing that food.
So, where is the gap?
According to a new assessment of the continent’s food systems, Africa is producing more than it did two decades ago. But there is still a problem.
The farmer is not earning enough from that progress.
That is one of the central findings of AGRA’s Impact, Learning and Foresight Report 2026, as the organisation marks 20 years of working to transform Africa’s agriculture.
The report, launched on 31st August 2026 in Nairobi, Kenya, offers an unusually candid assessment of the past two decades. Africa’s agricultural output has roughly doubled in real terms since 2005, farmer incomes have doubled, and cereal yields have risen by about 40 percent.
Reports Link: https://agra.org/foresight-report-2026/.
Yet the gains have not been enough to deliver the transformation the continent needs.
Africa’s agricultural value added per worker stands at about US$1,500, compared with a global average of US$4,300. The continent also faces an estimated US$180 billion annual financing gap in its agrifood sector, including about US$65 billion needed by small and medium agribusinesses.
In simple terms, Africa is moving forward, but not fast enough.
And this is where AGRA@20 becomes more than an anniversary.
It becomes a moment to ask what has worked, what has not, and what needs to change over the next 20 years.
The report identifies three traps holding African agriculture back: the productivity trap, where yields remain too low and vulnerable to climate shocks; the value trap, where production does not consistently translate into reliable income and viable businesses; and the capability trap, where institutions, policies and investments do not always work together.
Speaking during the event, Kenya’s Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Abraham Korir Sing’Oei, said this is why agricultural transformation cannot stop at the farm gate.
A farmer can produce more food and still remain poor if there is no reliable market, poor infrastructure or no buyer willing to pay a fair price.
“A farmer can increase yields and still remain poor if that additional production cannot reach a reliable market at a remunerative price,” Sing’Oei said.
The answer, he argued, must therefore include stronger regional trade, better infrastructure, predictable regulations and policies that allow farmers and agribusinesses to access larger markets.
There are already signs of what that could look like.
AGRA’s 2025 reporting highlighted US$12.8 million in Kenya-Ethiopia trade contracts, a reminder that agricultural transformation can extend beyond what happens on an individual farm and create opportunities across borders.
For AGRA President Dr. Alice Ruhweza, the lessons of the past 20 years point to one clear priority: Africa must now turn progress into income, resilience and opportunity.
“Twenty years of evidence show that Africa’s agrifood sector can move when the conditions are right. The task now is to turn that progress into income, resilience, dignity and opportunity for farmers,” Ruhweza said.
That shift is important because agriculture is no longer simply a question of producing enough food.
It is also about jobs, businesses, trade, climate resilience and the future of millions of young Africans.
The report estimates that more than 60 percent of African livelihoods depend on the agrifood sector, which generates nearly a third of the continent’s GDP. At the same time, Africa’s population could reach 2.5 billion by 2050, with about 1.5 billion people living in urban areas.
That means the pressure on African food systems is only going to grow.
So will the opportunity.
The report further estimates that agrifood transformation could generate more than US$1 trillion in additional GDP by 2045 if the continent can overcome the barriers standing in its way.
But achieving that will require more than new seeds or higher yields.
It will require farmers to have access to finance, reliable buyers, better roads and storage, stronger markets and policies that make it easier to do business.
It will also require governments, businesses, researchers, financiers and farmers to work together.
That gap also has implications beyond the farm, according to H.E. Beyene Russom, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Eritrea to the Republic of Kenya and Dean of the Diplomatic Corps in Kenya.
Speaking on behalf of the African Diplomatic Corps, he said agriculture is not just about food, but also about jobs, dignity, peace and the security of nations.
“When smallholder farmers thrive, communities are stable. When food systems are resilient, nations are secure.”
The message comes as Africa prepares to implement the African Union’s Kampala CAADP Strategy and Action Plan for 2026–2035, which targets US$100 billion in new resources, a 45 percent increase in agrifood output and a tripling of intra-African trade in agricultural goods.
The targets are ambitious.
But perhaps the simplest measure of whether Africa is getting agriculture right will not be found in the size of its harvests or the number of tonnes produced.
It will be found in the lives of the people behind those numbers.
Can a farmer earn a reliable income?
Can a young person see agriculture as a business rather than a last resort?
Can an African farmer produce for a market beyond their own village or even their own country?
Twenty years after AGRA was established around Kofi Annan’s vision of an African-led agricultural transformation, the continent has made real progress.
The next challenge is making sure that progress pays.
Because ultimately, Africa’s agricultural transformation will not be measured only by how much the continent produces, but by how much income and opportunity reaches the people who produce it.
