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By Portus Chege
With just over eighteen months until Kenya’s next presidential election, the political atmosphere is charged. Coalition realignments, some based on ethnic lines, are reshaping the landscape, prompting concern among observers about the potential for instability in a nation long considered a regional anchor of peace. Poll watchers, including the European Union mission in Kenya and religious leaders, have voiced caution. They warn that a highly polarised political climate, combined with a struggling economy, could pose serious challenges to the democratic process.
A central feature of the current political dynamic is the fragmentation of the opposition. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the main opposition party, is publicly divided. This follows a “broad-based” government agreement brokered in 2024 between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Initially intended to restore calm after the Gen-Z-led protests in mid-2024, the agreement’s one-year term has elapsed, but its political repercussions linger.
The ODM is now split between two factions. One, reportedly led by Raila Odinga’s brother, Oburu Odinga, has expressed support for a pre-election coalition with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The other faction, led by ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and youth leaders like MP Babu Owino, strongly opposes this. They argue that cooperating with the UDA undermines the opposition’s role and that the government has failed to implement the ten-point agenda agreed upon as a condition for the broad-based government.
This internal rift has raised concerns about the health of multiparty democracy. “It is no secret there are concerns about the possible outbreak of violence and an onslaught on opposition politics,” said political analyst David Oloo. “This is not inevitable, but it is clear it would create a situation where everyone loses.”
The current pre-election environment is evoking memories of the 2007-2008 post-election violence. While the situation is distinct, the deepening economic crisis—characterised by high unemployment and a sense of hopelessness among the youth—adds a volatile element. Recent by-elections have been marked by allegations of bribery, intolerance, and disputes over results. “If the violence, the allegations, suspicions, and general acrimony are anything to go by, then we have a reason to be very worried,” noted Kiraitu Murungi, Chairperson of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy.
The politicisation of ethnicity is also a recurring theme. President Ruto, a Kalenjin, is seen as drawing support from the expansive Rift Valley bloc. The backing of President Ruto by the Oburu Odinga-led faction has led some to frame the contest as a struggle for the Luo vote, adding another layer of complexity to ethnic dynamics.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is under significant strain. It is facing multiple court cases related to procurement processes, including a dispute over the multi-million-dollar presidential ballot tender. The commission has warned that these disagreements could jeopardise the presidential election schedule. The government maintains that the election must proceed on time, or else it would disenfranchise Kenyans keen to participate, while opposition figures accuse the administration of plans to rig the vote and stifle democracy.
Trust in the electoral process is further complicated by a history of disputed polls and a general climate of skepticism. Both the ruling UDA and the opposition factions express confidence in victory, often citing private surveys. However, past inaccuracies by major pollsters have made the public and analysts wary of such predictions, making the 2027 outcome particularly difficult to forecast.
As the election approaches, Kenya faces a critical test. The government is grappling with a challenging economic blueprint, job losses, and falling revenue collection, which fuels public discontent. The opposition, despite its internal divisions, is tapping into this frustration. The path ahead requires a conscious effort from all political actors to prioritise national stability over narrow interests. The ghosts of 2007/08 serve as a grim reminder of the cost of failure. For now, Kenya stands at a crossroads, with its reputation for resilience and its democratic future hanging in the balance.
The writer is a journalist and human rights defender with extensive expertise in Africa’s political transition and peace and security.
