By Henry Owino
Nairobi County, Kenya: In Nairobi, in the recent past, it has not been easy to foretell or predict the weather pattern. This is because the system that is well known to Nairobi residents has completely changed leaving many wondering what is really happening.
For a long time, the weather pattern and alterations in Nairobi County have always been known throughout the year around. Nevertheless, for the first time in history, heavy sporadic rainfalls were experienced in the months of January to April. This is totally different from the traditional extreme dry and hot spell usually experienced at the beginning of each year.
According to David Koros, Principal Meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department based in Nairobi County, the weather pattern has completely changed not only in Nairobi but across the country. He agreed that for many years there is always normal to above normal rainfall between the months of April to June.
He stated it is usually followed by cloudy and very cold weather between July and August opening up in September. However, the weatherman said between October and mid-December is the time shorts rains are experienced which are average to normal in terms of weather instrument records. He admitted that the months of January to March are known as dry months not only in Nairobi but including most parts of the country.
“Emerging trend now is completely different from the renowned weather system. This year, Nairobi had heavy showers of rains being between January to April. This is the very first time in the history of Nairobi so far to be captured in Metrological Department records,” Koros said.
“It was very unfortunate that the heavy downpours resulted in flash floods damaging property and loss of lives among other devastations. Houses were brought down, roads destroyed, vehicles washed away, several people displaced, human deaths witnessed and schools closed,” he regrated.
“I would like to urge Nairobi residents and Kenyans, in general, to always adhere to precautions and early warnings given by Metrological Department concerning rains or dry spells. Media especially the vernacular stations play a good role in informing Kenyans but most people ignore them only to regret later,” Koros advised.
Koros explained the trend is mainly a result of winds changing directions and carrying plenty of moisture from the Coastal region. The moisture hence causes heavy rains in the afternoons in Nairobi, Central Kenya, Lower eastern and its environs instead of usual months as traditions.
He clarified that the winds are a result of climate change due to global warming which generally affects geographical weather patterns of Nairobi making it either wet and cold or dry and hot. The new trend is likely to last longer because in Nairobi due to the effects of pollution so, residents should be ready to embrace it.
According to Prof Shem Wandiga, a retired professor of Chemistry and former Acting Director Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation (ICCA), the new trend of weather patterns in Nairobi and its environs is very unusual. It appears to have caught many residents unaware resulting in severe devastations.
Prof Wandiga said scientific evidence for the warming of the climate system is unequivocal. The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century.
The climate change expert regrated that the trend is proceeding at a rate unprecedented over millennia thus greater than 95 percent probability. He cautioned that if the trend is not checked, worse is yet to be experienced in the coming months.
“There have been changes in some types of extreme weather events over the last several decades. Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense, especially in the West. Cold waves have become less frequent and intense across the nation. There have been regional trends in floods and droughts,” Prof Wandiga said.
The effects of climate change can now be witnessed such as rising maximum temperatures, rising minimum temperatures, rising sea levels, higher ocean temperatures, an increase in heavy precipitation (heavy rain and hail), shrinking glaciers all of which are a result of human activities.
“If the rising temperature is not taken care of, there is going to be more devastating impacts to the environment. There are increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere attributed to human activities. Industrialization and increase in a number of motorists including motorbikes mainly used in Nairobi of late contribute greatly to the GHGs making the atmosphere warmer by at least by more than one degree over a period time,” Prof Wandiga cautioned.
“With the temperature in the last decade rising by more than one degree and resulting to a warmer climate, the new decade, heat levels have not remained the same but hotter Prof Wandiga cautioned.
The Expert said Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 2014, indicates that Carbon Dioxide is the largest occupant of the atmosphere at 65%, Methane gas 16%, Nitrous Oxide 6%, and Fluorinated gases such as Neon at 2%.
The professor noted that a record of hot weather occurs almost yearly for the last decade and is most likely to persist unless the build-up of GHGs in the atmosphere is stopped.
Prof Wandiga cautioned that after the heavy rains experienced, the hot weather might result in further droughts culminating in food insecurity among other devastating agricultural impacts to the rest of the country. He said Africa is the second-largest dry continent, the hot weather would put a strain on water availability.
“Already, climate change is a leading cause of food insecurity and malnutrition in the African region, with tremendous evidence showing worse impact if the heat continues. In 2017 alone, droughts left 12.8 million people in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Somalia food insecure,” Prof Wandiga regretted.
“It is the responsibility of every country to reduce GHGs especially carbon dioxide and not limited to wealthy or industrialized countries. African countries have to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by all means as everybody is being affected,” he challenged.
The 2013 World Bank report dubbed: “Turn Down the Heat”: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, 1.5 degrees warming in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030s. This could lead to about 40% of present maize cropping areas being no longer suitable for current cultivations, and significant negative impacts on sorghum.
The report further indicates that in less than two degrees of warming by 2050s, total crop production could be reduced by 10%. At two degrees, heat extremes could affect 15% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s land area in the hot season causing deaths and threatening farmer’s ability to grow crops.
The Expert noted that African governments have many options to cut down on their carbon dioxide emissions including the use of cleaner energies such as solar and geothermal. Others include putting up a commuter railroad system to reduce the need to drive, stop deforestation and encourage the planting of trees to absorb carbon dioxide emissions.
“I would encourage the use of methane as opposed to fossil fuels as it produces less carbon dioxide and is financially affordable. Though to attract its use, there should be political and economic policy to change those that are unwilling to change,” he advised.
“So, the emerging trends are speeding up climate change effects threatening humanity and livelihoods. Unless there is a clear roadmap for adaptation and mitigation, the effects could be worse,” Prof Wandiga emphasized.
