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By Lenah Bosibori
Nairobi, Kenya: Kenya has lost an estimated Sh20.4 billion over the last five years due to delays in adopting genetically modified (GM) crop technologies, a new study has revealed.
The study, dubbed Genetically Modified Crops in Kenya: ‘The Cost of Delay’, estimates that between 2019 and 2023, the country missed out on potential income and production gains that farmers and consumers would have enjoyed if biotech crop varieties such as Bt maize, Bt cotton, and late blight-resistant potatoes had been adopted earlier.
According to the findings, the delay has denied both farmers and consumers the benefits of higher yields, lower food prices, and reduced dependence on costly imports.
“This is the total loss Kenya has incurred due to the caution and delays we have taken since 2019,” said Dr. Daniel Kyalo, Senior Manager, Agribusiness, Policy and Commercialization at African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF). “The amount represents income farmers would have earned and the savings consumers would have made through lower prices.”
The report shows that the Sh20.4 billion lost could have bought 389,000 metric tons of maize, more than the 250,000 metric tons Kenya plans to import in 2025. The amount could also feed about 720,000 Kenyans for a full year, highlighting the magnitude of the loss.
For maize farmers, the delay in adopting BT maize, which is resistant to pests such as the fall armyworm, has led to a loss of about 194,000 tons of maize annually, according to the study.
“This could have fed 2.5 million people for a year. Instead, Kenya spent between Sh60 and 65 billion importing maize during that period,” Dr. Kyalo noted.
Cotton growers have also suffered. The study estimates that Kenya would have produced an additional 650 tons of cotton if Bt cotton had been introduced earlier, cutting cotton imports by 12% and saving farmers about Sh153 million.
“BT cotton was meant to rejuvenate the textile industry and create jobs. Yet, we continue to import clothes instead of using locally produced cotton,” said Dr. Kyalo in his presentation.
Potato Farmers Count Losses
For potato farmers, the lack of adoption of late blight-resistant potatoes has cost the country Sh11.3 billion in potential earnings over five years. Farmers have been forced to spend up to 25% of their profits on fungicides to protect crops, despite health and environmental risks associated with their use.
“The delay has not only cost us economically but also socially and environmentally,” the researcher explained. “Every year of delay costs Kenya more in lost food security, income, and sustainability.”
Experts argue that adopting GM crops would boost productivity, reduce pesticide use, and increase food security. They project that if Kenya embraces GM technology today, the economy could gain Sh56 billion over the next 30 years from improved yields, higher farmer incomes, and reduced input costs.
Misinformation still a major barrier
“The issue in Kenya is not regulation, it’s misinformation,” Dr. Daniel reiterated. “Many Kenyans, including professionals, still believe myths about GM crops. We need to shift from fear to facts.”
Dr. Canisius Kanangire, the Executive Director of AATF, in his opening remarks said that in the face of complex climate change challenges, genetically modified crops represent a scientifically validated technology with demonstrated potential to enhance crop resilience, increase yields, and improve farmers’ livelihoods. However, its potential remains underutilized.
“The evidence from global agricultural systems, a comprehensive analysis of 147 studies published in Eros Journals indicates that the adoption of GM technology can lead to an average yield increase of 22 percent and a dramatic 67 percent rise in farmers’ profits,” he said.
He added that this report offers a rigorous, evidence-based analysis of the economic and social opportunities forgone due to delayed adoption of the technology, telling a compelling story faced by smallholder farmers in cotton and potato who grapple with devastating losses.
The study calls on the government and stakeholders to intensify public education on biotechnology and empower local scientists to lead innovation.
“Kenya can no longer afford further delays. Every year of inaction costs us food, money, and the environment,” said Dr. Kyalo.
The report was a collaboration between BTI, the Alliance for Science, the African Agricultural Technology Foundations (AATF), ISAAA, Africenter and the International Potato Center.
