Opinion: The Deafening Silence of Devolution

By Dr. James Ciera

When devolution was rolled out in 2013, it was hailed as a bold experiment in Kenya’s governance. The Constitution of 2010 had promised that by bringing resources closer to the people, communities long sidelined by a centralised state would finally have a say in how schools, hospitals, markets, and water points were funded and run. 

Over ten years on, the story is mixed. Counties have indeed built more health facilities, roads, and early childhood centres, but beneath the surface of progress lie stubborn exclusions. Women, children, people with disabilities, those in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), and the elderly all face gaps. But it is the youth (Kenya’s largest demographic group) who stand out as the most consistently neglected under devolved governance.

Kenya is a young country. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data, about 75% of the Kenyan population is under 35, with about 22% aged between 15 and 24. This is a group brimming with energy, ideas, and frustration. The 2022 World Bank’s Kenya Economic Update report estimates put youth unemployment at 13%, more than double the national average of 6%. 

In urban informal settlements, the rates are even higher, with some surveys suggesting nearly 30% of young people cannot find stable work. However, findings from the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) and UN Women reports consistently show that aggregate county spending on dedicated youth programs falls far short of the 5% mark. The 2023 UNDP Kenya assessment report found that only 12 of the 47 counties had active, funded Youth Advisory Boards, even though they are mandated by law.

Twaweza’s Sauti za Wananchi data highlights a significant disconnect in governance. A 2022 survey reveals that youth feel profoundly excluded; only 16% believed they had meaningful opportunities to influence county decision-making, and just 22% trusted the government to listen to them. This stands in sharp contrast to the 32% of older adults who felt influential, illustrating that the country’s largest demographic is also the most marginalized in policy processes. 

Women, too, have a complex experience under devolution. On paper, devolution has expanded opportunities for female representation in county assemblies and created dedicated gender desks in county governments. But funding tells another story. The 2022 County Budgets for Gender Equality assessment showed that only 0.6% of total county budgets, on average, were earmarked for gender equality and women’s empowerment initiatives. This falls far short of the government’s 30% public procurement reservation for women, youth, and persons with disabilities. 

The 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) reported a maternal mortality ratio of 355 deaths per 100,000 live births, still five times higher than the global target. While 94% of births are attended by skilled personnel, almost 39% still occur outside health facilities, a statistic that rises sharply in rural and ASAL counties. For instance, Counties like Turkana – a county that receives a lion’s share of devolution fund- distances to health facilities remain daunting, and drugs often run out.

Children have also not been left out; they remain at risk of being crowded out of the devolution agenda. ActionAid’s 2023 review of devolution noted that while counties are constitutionally responsible for early childhood education (ECDE), the sector has suffered chronic underfunding. Teachers in many counties go months without pay, and classrooms often lack the most basic supplies. 

The Comprehensive Report on Early Childhood Development Education (2023) reported that only 61% of children in ECDE centres had access to adequate learning materials, while disparities across counties were stark, ranging from over 80% in Nairobi to below 40% in Mandera. 

The 2022 KDHS reports that while national immunization coverage among children aged 12–23 months is 80%, significant gaps persist. In ASALs and informal settlements, rates fall below 60%, leaving children highly vulnerable. In these regions, any disruption to health services, whether from corruption or poor management, jeopardizes hard-won gains in child survival.

The elderly and persons with disabilities are often absent from conversations about devolution. A 2021 World Bank report found that county governments rarely integrate national cash transfer programs for the elderly and persons with disabilities (PWDs) into local planning, leaving these groups largely absent from devolution conversations.

Sauti za Wananchi survey revealed a stark disparity. While 24% of elderly respondents accessed national cash transfers, less than 10% benefited from any county-run program. Similarly, persons with disabilities remain severely underrepresented in county assemblies, and audits consistently find public facilities non-compliant with accessibility standards, contrary to constitutional mandates.

In practice, the promise of devolution has frequently resulted in inefficient infrastructure that fails to serve its intended communities. Glaring examples abound, from Kiambu’s new but under-stocked and under-staffed hospitals to the utterly vacant dispensaries in Wajir and Marsabit, which were built without proper plans for equipping them or deploying medical personnel. These projects stand as expensive monuments to poor planning and misplaced priorities.

The World Bank 2024 report also shows that counties now manage over 35% of public spending—a significant departure from Nairobi’s former centrality. Public opinion on devolution is mixed. Sauti za Wananchi survey reveals that 68% of Kenyans acknowledge better access to services, but only 40% believe the system is fair, with youth and women expressing the highest levels of dissatisfaction.

The way forward requires both political will and structural reforms. First, counties must ring-fence budgets for youth, women, children, and PWDs, with transparent reporting on how funds are spent. National and county governments should strengthen participatory budgeting to ensure the voices of the young and marginalised are not tokenised but translated into actual budget lines. 

Second, devolved health and education services need to be linked more deliberately with national social protection schemes so that gaps in one sphere are not compounded in another. Finally, lessons can be drawn from other countries. In Brazil and South Africa, participatory budgeting and strong youth councils have created tangible spaces for young people to shape local priorities. Kenya’s counties could adapt these models to their own context.

Kenya’s devolution journey has been one of bold promises and uneven outcomes. The statistics tell a story of progress in reducing maternal and child mortality, expanding infrastructure, and increasing access to services. But they also reveal who is being left behind. If the next decade of devolution is to deliver on its constitutional promise, then counties must place youth, women, children, the elderly, PWDs, and marginalized communities at the centre of their planning and not at the periphery. Devolution is meant to bring government closer to the people. For now, too many still feel it has left them waiting outside the room.

Dr. James Ciera, Kenya Country Lead and Senior Statistician, Twaweza East Africa.  He can be reached via jciera@twaweza.org.